Manila condo oversupply seen keeping vacancy high this year — Colliers

METRO MANILA’S condominium market is expected to see residential vacancy rise to 25% this year as unsold units in mid- and lower mid-income segments continue to weigh on the market, property consultancy firm Colliers Philippines said.

In its Fourth-Quarter Property Market Report, Colliers projected that the region’s residential vacancy rate would peak in 2026 before easing to 23.9% in 2027.

Metro Manila ended 2025 with a 24.7% vacancy rate, up from 23.9% in 2024.

“The mid-income segment has shown strong demand for its pre-selling units, but when owners try to resell or lease them, they have a hard time finding a renter or buyer,” Joey Roi H. Bondoc, director and head of research at Colliers Philippines, said on the sidelines of a briefing on Monday.

Colliers data show Metro Manila has roughly 30,000 unsold ready-for-occupancy units, with 36% in the lower mid-income segment, priced at P3.6 million to P6.99 million, and 33% in the affordable segment, valued at P2.5 million to P3.59 million.

By submarket, the Bay Area recorded the highest vacancy at 57.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, while Ortigas Center had the lowest at 6.4%.

Despite elevated vacancies, net take-up improved by 8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, totaling 10,000 units, with the mid-income segment accounting for 70% of net demand. Colliers said developers’ ready-for-occupancy promotions and flexible payment schemes, such as extended down payments and early move-ins, helped drive absorption.

Colliers projected that 7,100 units would be completed on average annually from 2026 to 2028, slightly lower than the 7,400 units completed in 2025.

Absorption remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels, when roughly 14,000 units were completed annually from 2017 to 2019.

In the office sector, Colliers expects vacancies to fall to 18.9% in 2026 from 19.4% at end-2025, supported by an expected net take-up of 400,000 square meters (sq.m.).

Office transactions rose 13% in 2025 to 847,000 sq.m. from 752,000 sq.m. in 2024, while vacated spaces fell 38% to 485,000 sq.m.

Colliers said the data suggest that while demand for mid-income pre-selling condos remains steady, developers may need to focus on ready-to-occupy units, flexible payment options, and targeted submarkets to absorb excess inventory. — Beatriz Marie D. Cruz